A model to investigate the impact of flooding on the vulnerability of value of commercial properties

A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Wolverhampton for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)Flooding has the potential to have significant impact on the value of properties depending on the level of inherent vulnerability. Experts argue that it is not the actual risk but the perception of risk among property holders that influences vulnerability of value. The hypothesis that changing perception of flood risk could make property value vulnerable in the market is the main focus of the research. This dimension of research has received very low attention in commercial property literature.The existing knowledge base of flooding and property value reveals that focus has been largely associated with residential properties. Conceptual understanding of the extent and scale of the effect of flooding on the vulnerability of property value of commercial properties would be worthwhile for relevant stakeholders. The research methodology follows a quantitative approach with sequential application: of literature review, conceptual model generation, data collection from primary and secondary sources with remote questionnaire survey of selected study areas in the UK. The conceptual model was operationalised using analysis and interpretation of the collected data and finally cross validated with secondary data gained from commercial real estate experts . The strength of this research lies in the conceptualisation of the subject matter of property value in the context of flood vulnerability.This work provides innovative conceptual insight towards business vulnerability and vulnerability of value. The variables contributing towards vulnerability were hierarchically ranked using both collected data and deductive methods. The patterns of impact and recovery analysis emphasized that within the commercial sector indirect effects of flooding should be given equal importance with direct damages.The implication of perception on the vulnerability of property value showed a slightly different picture from business vulnerability in the chosen study areas when differentiated based on flood experience. In a nutshell the study reflected that the commercial property sector does not take flooding as one of their priorities. This is in part due to differential attitude towards risk of the population within the flood plain based on their knowledge and experience of flooding. The perception of stakeholders towards vulnerability of value can change with increasing magnitude and severity of floods and it is possible that the implications on market value of commercial properties will be visible in the future. Practitioners and researchers will find this study useful in developing an understanding of the vulnerability of commercial property value in the context of changing flood risk

Five feet high and rising : cities and flooding in the 21st century

Urban flooding is an increasingly important issue. Disaster statistics appear to show flood events are becoming more frequent, with medium-scale events increasing fastest. The impact of flooding is driven by a combination of natural and human-induced factors. As recent flood events in Pakistan, Brazil, Sri Lanka and Australia show, floods can occur in widespread locations and can sometimes overwhelm even the best prepared countries and cities. There are known and tested measures for urban flood risk management, typically classified as structural or engineered measures, and non-structural, management techniques. A combination of measures to form an integrated management approach is most likely to be successful in reducing flood risk. In the short term and for developing countries in particular, the factors affecting exposure and vulnerability are increasing at the fastest rate as urbanization puts more people and more assets at risk. In the longer term, however, climate scenarios are likely to be one of the most important drivers of future changes in flood risk. Due to the large uncertainties in projections of climate change, adaptation to the changing risk needs to be flexible to a wide range of future scenarios and to be able to cope with potentially large changes in sea level, rainfall intensity and snowmelt. Climate uncertainty and budgetary, institutional and practical constraints are likely to lead to a combining of structural and non-structural measures for urban flood risk management, and arguably, to a move away from what is sometimes an over-reliance on hard-engineered defenses and toward more adaptable and incremental non-structural solutions.Hazard Risk Management,Wetlands,Natural Disasters,Adaptation to Climate Change,Climate Change Impacts

Flood risk to commercial property: Training and Education Needs of Built Environment Professionals

Improved management of commercial property at risk from flooding may result from well-targeted advice from built environment professionals, such as surveyors, valuers and project managers. However, research indicates that the role of these professionals in providing such advice is currently limited for a variety of reasons. This research aimed to investigate the (perceived and real) barriers and opportunities for providing such advice in a number of international locations. In particular the research sought greater understanding of the link between regulation and guidance; perceived roles and capacity; and training and education needs. In order to cover different international settings an illustrative case study approach was adopted within the selected countries (Australia, UK, US, China and Germany). This involved a qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews of built environment (BE) professionals with experience of advising on commercial properties at risk of flooding. Due to the specific nature of these interviews, a purposive sampling approach was implemented, leading to a sample of 72 interviews across the five international locations. Perceived barriers were linked to regulatory issues, a shortage of suitably experienced professionals, a lack of formal guidance and insurance requirements. BE professionals defined their roles differently in each case study in relation to these factors and stressed the need for closer collaboration among the various disciplines and indeed the other key stakeholders (i.e. insurers, loss adjusters, contractors). A shortage of knowledgeable experts caused by a lack of formal training and education was a common challenge highlighted in all locations. The research is unique in providing an international perspective on issues affecting built environment professionals in providing robust and impartial advice on commercial property at risk of flooding. Whilst acknowledging the existence of local flood conditions, regulatory frameworks and insurance regimes, the results indicate some recurring themes, indicating a lack of general flood risk education and training across all five case study countries. Learning across case studies coupled with appropriate policy development, could contribute towards improved skills development and more consistent integration of BE professionals within future flood risk management practice, policy and strategy

Using historical source data to understand urban flood risk: a socio-hydrological modelling application at Gregorio Creek, Brazil

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on [date of publication], available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1740705.The city of São Carlos, state of São Paulo, Brazil, has a historical coexistence between society and floods. Unplanned urbanization in this area is a representative feature of how Brazilian cities have developed, undermining the impact of natural hazards. The Gregório Creek catchment is an enigma of complex dynamics concerning the relationship between humans and water in Brazilian cities. Our hypothesis is that social memory of floods can improve future resilience. In this paper we analyse flood risk dynamics in a small urban catchment, identify the impacts of social memory on building resilience and propose measures to reduce the risk of floods. We applied a socio-hydrological model using data collected from newspapers from 1940 to 2018. The model was able to elucidate human–water processes in the catchment and the historical source data proved to be a useful tool to fill gaps in the data in small urban basins

Five feet high and rising: Cities and flooding in the 21st Century

Urban flooding is an increasingly important issue.Disaster statistics appear to show flood events arebecoming more frequent, with medium-scale eventsincreasing fastest. The impact of flooding is driven bya combination of natural and human-induced factors.As recent flood events in Pakistan, Brazil, Sri Lanka andAustralia show, floods can occur in widespread locationsand can sometimes overwhelm even the best preparedcountries and cities. There are known and tested measuresfor urban flood risk management, typically classified asstructural or engineered measures, and non-structural,management techniques. A combination of measures toform an integrated management approach is most likelyto be successful in reducing flood risk. In the short termand for developing countries in particular, the factorsaffecting exposure and vulnerability are increasing atthe fastest rate as urbanization puts more people andmore assets at risk. In the longer term, however, climatescenarios are likely to be one of the most importantdrivers of future changes in flood risk. Due to the largeuncertainties in projections of climate change, adaptationto the changing risk needs to be flexible to a wide rangeof future scenarios and to be able to cope with potentiallylarge changes in sea level, rainfall intensity and snowmelt.Climate uncertainty and budgetary, institutional andpractical constraints are likely to lead to a combining ofstructural and non-structural measures for urban floodrisk management, and arguably, to a move away fromwhat is sometimes an over-reliance on hard-engineereddefenses and toward more adaptable and incrementalnon-structural solutions

Blue and grey urban water footprints through citizens’ perception and time series analysis of Brazilian dynamics

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 4 March 2021, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1879388Predicting future water demands of societies is a major challenge because it involves a holistic understanding of possible changes within socio-hydrological systems. Although recent research has made efforts to translate social dimensions into the analysis of hydrological systems, few studies have involved citizen participation in water footprint analysis. This paper integrates time series with citizens’ perceptions, knowledge and beliefs concerning sanitation elements to account for municipal blue and grey water footprints in São Carlos, Brazil, from 2009 to 2016, and potential water footprints in 2030 and 2050. In this case study, grey footprint potentially exceeds the blue water footprint by up to 35 times, and volunteered information suggested a reduction in water consumption, larger garbage production and greater investment in sanitation infrastructure from authorities. We conclude that public knowledge can be used to delineate possible water footprint scenarios and reveal paradoxes in the coevolution of socio-hydrological systems on an urban scale

Anticipated Memories and Adaptation from Past Flood Events in Gregório Creek Basin, Brazil

In this research we used walking interviews to investigate the measures used by shopkeepers as protection against floods. The concept of anticipated memory has been used to identify the relationship between their learning from previous events and the adaptive measures they have taken to reduce risk of future flooding in Gregório Creek basin. The area is affected by major flooding issues in the city of São Carlos, southeastern Brazil. Twenty-three (23) downtown merchants shared their experience of the extreme rainfall that occurred on 12 January 2020, characterized by a return period of 103 years. Comparing our findings with November 2015 and March 2018 floods (Interviews 37 and 52 respectively), we noted that due to the enhanced level of threat, people had changed their adaptation strategy by increasing the sum of floodgate height more than 4-fold (870 cm to 3830 cm) between 2015 to 2020. Our results showed that despite frequent flooding, the shopkeepers downtown were reluctant to move away from the area; rather, they preferred to improve their individual protection. The substantial increase in the height of the floodgates represents the population’s feedback in the face of a new level of threat

Towards adoption of mobile data collection for effective adaptation and climate risk management in Africa

From Wiley via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2021-02-15, rev-recd 2022-01-31, accepted 2022-02-28, pub-electronic 2022-05-16Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedFunder: Department for International DevelopmentAbstract: The collection and use of data on climate change and its impacts are crucial for effective climate adaptation and climate risk management. The revolution in internet access, technology and costs has led to a shift from using traditional paper‐based data collection to the use of Mobile Data Collection using Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) such as smartphones and tablets. In this paper, we report our experiences using both approaches for a household and business survey during a climate adaptation study in two Nigerian cities—Makurdi and Calabar. The focus of this paper is to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of using traditional paper‐based data collection and PDAs as data collection tools for climate change study in African societies. In Calabar, data were collected using paper questionnaires, while in Makurdi the questionnaires were developed on Open Data Kit (ODK) and administered using PDAs. Results show that data collection using PDA was faster, cheaper, more accurate and resulted in fewer omissions than paper‐based data collection. There was a time saving of four (4) minutes per questionnaire and a 24% cost saving when using PDA. PDA provides additional benefits where platforms can collect images, videos and coordinates. This significantly improved the credibility of the data collection process and provided further data that allowed for the mapping of environmental phenomena by linking survey research with geo‐referenced data in a geographic information systems platform to provide spatial representations of social and environmental system convergence. PDA offers a tool for collecting data that will make necessary socio‐environmental data available in a faster, reliable and cheaper manner; future research can build on this study by discovering other possible but less highlighted benefits of PDA. Although, with great benefits, there are lessons to be learnt and issues to consider when deploying PDA in large‐scale household surveys

Towards adoption of mobile data collection for effective adaptation and climate risk management in Africa

Abstract: The collection and use of data on climate change and its impacts are crucial for effective climate adaptation and climate risk management. The revolution in internet access, technology and costs has led to a shift from using traditional paper‐based data collection to the use of Mobile Data Collection using Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) such as smartphones and tablets. In this paper, we report our experiences using both approaches for a household and business survey during a climate adaptation study in two Nigerian cities—Makurdi and Calabar. The focus of this paper is to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of using traditional paper‐based data collection and PDAs as data collection tools for climate change study in African societies. In Calabar, data were collected using paper questionnaires, while in Makurdi the questionnaires were developed on Open Data Kit (ODK) and administered using PDAs. Results show that data collection using PDA was faster, cheaper, more accurate and resulted in fewer omissions than paper‐based data collection. There was a time saving of four (4) minutes per questionnaire and a 24% cost saving when using PDA. PDA provides additional benefits where platforms can collect images, videos and coordinates. This significantly improved the credibility of the data collection process and provided further data that allowed for the mapping of environmental phenomena by linking survey research with geo‐referenced data in a geographic information systems platform to provide spatial representations of social and environmental system convergence. PDA offers a tool for collecting data that will make necessary socio‐environmental data available in a faster, reliable and cheaper manner; future research can build on this study by discovering other possible but less highlighted benefits of PDA. Although, with great benefits, there are lessons to be learnt and issues to consider when deploying PDA in large‐scale household surveys

Risk perception and vulnerability of value: a study in the context of commercial property sector

© 2016 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VGTU) Press, and Taylor & Francis. The research was developed linking the impact of flood risk on utility, desirability and marketability related to vulnerability of commercial property value. Likert style questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain data from flood affected and un-affected respondents across different designated flood risk zones on key business and perception variables among two groups of business property holders in England. The responses were analysed through a spatial vulnerability model to illustrate the distribution of the vulnerability of value of properties among flood plain business holders on a GIS platform. Majority of respondents perceived that utility of properties may be hampered by flooding and subsequently have an impact on value for property at risk. Those with flood experience gave greater weight to their specific business needs such as the prime location and expected income level than those without flood experience. The implication of the study lies in understanding that flood risk perceptions can shape actions of people at risk towards future increase in resilience having strategic impact on value of property saleability in the future